US: TIME FOR A NEW STRATEGY ON PAKISTAN

B.RAMAN

The indicators from reliable sources in Pakistan are that the just-concluded visit( October 21,2011) of Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, to Pakistan at the head of a high-power delegation including the new incumbents to the important posts of Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey and Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),David Petraeus, failed to have the necessary impact on the military as well as civilian leadership.

2. What she was expecting was a clear commitment from the Pakistani leadership with a time-bound plan of operation to neutralise the sanctuaries of Al Qaeda and the Haqqani network, an arm of the Afghan Taliban, in the Pashtun belt in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)---particularly in North Waziristan.

3. The Pakistani civilian and military leaders were as evasive as ever and the Army headed by Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), avoided making any commitment on this issue despite cautions emanating from identified and unidentified sources in Washington regarding the likely punitive consequences of continued Pakistani inaction against the terrorist sanctuaries in Pakistani territory from which, according to the US, attacks are launched against NATO and Afghan targets in Afghan territory.

4. As the US moves towards the Presidential elections next year, the counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations of the US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan have been stalling on the ground. Spectacular decapitation strikes against high-value targets through pilotless Drone aircraft and commando actions such as the one that killed Osama bin Laden on May 2 last have not produced any major qualitative change in the ground situation.

5. Successful decapitation strikes need time to produce results on the ground situation. The Obama Administration wants quick results that would enable it to start thinning out the US troop presence in Afghanistan well before next-year's elections when Mr.Obama will be seeking re-election.

6. Such quick results in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations come only from successful strikes against terrorist sanctuaries and other infrastructure on the ground through a mix of air and ground actions. Such a mix facilitated the elimination of OBL in Abbottabad, but it is difficult to repeat it against widely-scattered terrorist infrastructure.

7. The US faces a dilemma because it does not have the stomach for sustained ground operations by its forces in Pakistani territory. Any ground operation by the US forces that is confined to North Waziristan alone would not produce enduring results because the entire Pakistan---its tribal belt as well as the non-tribal hinterland--- provides a strategic depth to the Afghan Taliban, including its Haqqani network.

8. The cruel reality is that without the co-operation of the Pakistan Army, the US is not in a position to mount a successful counter-sanctuary operation in Pakistani territory. The Pakistan Army has a clear understanding of the limitations to the ground action capabilities of the US in Pakistani territory. Such limitations do not arise from Pakistan's nuclear arsenal as it is generally presumed. They arise from the nature of the tribal belt and the vast non-tribal hinterland.

9. There are no quick answers to the operational dilemma faced by the US in Pakistan. The US has to realise that Pakistan as constituted presently will continue to keep coming in the way of the over-all strategic objectives of the US in the Af-Pak region. Unless the Pakistani capabilities are weakened, there is going to be no enduring solution to the US dilemma in Pakistan. Economic and military sanctions alone will not weaken Pakistan's capabilities in view of the assistance that would be forthcoming to Pakistan from China and Saudi Arabia.

10. The only enduring way of weakening the capability of Pakistan is to work strategically for changing the very nature of Pakistan as it is constituted presently by identifying friendly elements in Pakistan such as the Balochs, the Mohajirs and the Shias and helping them in achieving their objective of freeing themselves from the control of the Pakistani Army.

11. These three elements have been struggling on their own, but they have not made much headway due to lack of external support and absence of strategic unity amongst them. If they can be persuaded to come together in a Southern Alliance and struggle jointly and if their political objectives are supported by the outside world---the US particularly—one may see the beginning of the process of weakening the capability of the Pakistani Army to stand in the way of peace and stability in the region.

12. The time has come for a clear realisation that Pakistan as constituted presently is the problem in the region and that unless the non-radical sections of the Pakistani society are helped to assert themselves, no enduring solution would be possible. ( 23-10-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )


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Editor,
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Dear friends and scholars,
Please find the attached column of Mr. Fasihuddin (PSP) on "Had Japan, Russia and Great Britain been Muslim States?" Published in Daily Aaj, Peshawar on October 25, 2011 on Tuesday. A glimpse from the history that how the unreasonable attitude of a few Muslim rulers and workers in the past and present has spoiled the opportunities for Islam to be preached and taught to the other nations in true spirits. Mr. Fasihuddin (PSP) has quoted from history with references that what went wrong in our decisions. It has a lot of lesson for today's Muslims to adopt the peaceful means of presenting their viewpoint.
The said column is also available on the following online link
http://www.dailyaaj.com.pk/epaper-detail.php?image=MjA3ODM=
Thanks for forwarding this to your colleagues if this is of interest to you and your friends.
With Best Wishes
---
Imran Ahmad Sajid
General Secretary,
Pakistan Society of Criminology
House#3, Aashiq Abad, New Warsak Colony,
Warsak Road, PESHAWAR,  Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa, Pakistan.
Phone:  +92-91-5200806 (Office)
Cell:     +92-313-9600 663


















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Traders reject energy conservation, tax collection measures

Government steps disastrous for country, fatal for economy

Millions to face unemployment, situation to trigger unrest, extremism

 

 

Dated: October 25

 

Islamabad: Trading community of the capital on Tuesday rejected the measures aimed at energy conservation and boosting tax collection terming it disastrous for country and fatal for economy.

 

The prevailing tough situation is direct result of the incompetency of government while measures announced by the authorities amounts to economic annihilation of the business community, said leaders of Traders Welfare Association (TWA).

 

Speaking at a hurriedly called Malik Sagheer Ahmed, Chairman TWA and Malik Sohail Hussain, President TWA, said that energy conservation measures and new income tax forms will result in massive unemployment which will trigger unrest as well as extremism.

 

They said that business community and masses are not ready to pay the price of incompetence of the government functionaries.

 

Malik Sagheer and Malik Sohail said that decisions taken by the baboo shahi without consulting stakeholders have proved useless in the past and it will not work in the future.

 

Trade leaders of the federal capital's commercial district said that those who have always cheated trading community and ditched them for personal interests have now formed a new group in the name of All Traders Welfare Association.

 

They have a controversial and partial executive board, it lacks any constitution, election schedule and have failed to publish voters list so that it can be scrutinised, they said.

 

The business leaders said that rejected elements have formed such groups in past to derail business community but now they stands unmasked therefore they have lost any support.

 

The TWA officials announced full support to the Capital Unity Group in the upcoming elections and vowed to continue struggle for a just tenancy act, residential and educational projects, dispensary and proper parking place in the Blue Area.

 

Traders present at the occasion said that they have full faith in the leadership of Sagheer, Sohail and Syed Amin Pirzada.

 

They said that they will support all the contestants of Capital Unity Group that include Syed Nadeem Mansoor running for post of President, SVP Zahid Qureshi, Gen. Sec. Shakil Aziz, VPs Liaquat Ali Noon, Haji Naeem, Yusuf Rajput and Ch. Arshad, Joint Secretary Imran Bokhari, Secretary Finance Salman and Secretary Information Intikhab Abbasi.

 

Leaders and members of other associations present on the occasion also promised to support TWA in the elections. They also included Hafiz Imran Abbasi, Zafar Abbasi, Aqeel Abbasi, Imran Abbasi, Shafique Abbasi and Ghufran Abbasi who represented traders hailing from hilly areas like Murree, Hazara and AJK.

 

They said that some elements have always tried to create rifts among the ranks of traders but now their efforts will frustrate as trading community is alive and they know about the services rendered by Malik Sagheer and Malik Sohail for the betterment of the community.  

--

Malik Sohail Hussain

President TWA, Blue Area,

Chairman FPCCI Standing

Committee on Media and PR

Cell 03215155500  and  03335155300

FPCCI +92-51-2251891-3. Fax +92-51-251894

 

 

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Chers partenaires/collègues,

Nous aimerions vous demander d'effecteur ce sondage adressé aux lecteurs des rapports mensuels produits par OCHA-RDC. Cette enquête- la seconde d'une série de deux- a lieu au sein de toute l'organisation et vise à mieux comprendre l'utilité des rapports d'information publique qui sont publiés régulièrement, notamment les rapports hebdomadaires/bimensuels et les rapports mensuels. Ce sondage ne prend pas en compte les rapports de situation qui sont produits pour des crises soudaines.

Nous avons déliberemment inclus des questions d'ordre général pour vous permettre d'apporter vos points de vue et  commentaires. Ce sondage prendra environ cinq minutes.

Prière trouver ci dessous le lien pour accéder au sondage dont la date de cloture est fixée au mardi 1 novembre 2011.
http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/readersurveyfrancais

En cliquant sur le lien suivant, vous trouverez les recents rapports mensuels publiés par le bureau.
http://rdc-humanitaire.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=33&Itemid=123

Nous vous rappelons qu'un premier sondage sur les rapports hebdomadaires vous a été adressé en début de journée. Si vous ne l'avez pas reçu et souhaité y participer, prière m'en informer.


Nous vous remercions de votre participation.

------------------------------------


Dear Partners/Colleagues,

We would like to ask that you complete the following reader survey for the DRC monthly report. This is the second of two surveys that you will receive today and is part of a global assessment that is being used across all of OCHA' s offices. The objective is to understand the benefit to each recipient of OCHA’s regular reporting products (excludes situation reports). This includes country-based weekly and monthly reports.

This survey has been designed to be applicable to readers of any one of these reports. The questions are deliberately broad and require that you provide commentary from your own unique perspective. The survey will require only 5 minutes of your time.

Please find below the link to the survey. The deadline for completing the survey is Tuesday 1 November 2011.
http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/readersurveyfrancais
Please note that this survey is in French.

You can access past monthly reports on the following link http://rdc-humanitaire.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=33&Itemid=123


We would like to remind you that a first survey on OCHA-DRC weekly reports was sent out earlier today. If you did not receive it and would like to participate, please let me know.

Thank you for your participation.


--------------------------------------------
Yvon A. Edoumou, Public Information and Advocacy Officer
Head, Public Information and Advocacy Section
OCHA, Democratic Republic of Congo
+243 97 000 3750 |+243 81 66 80 950 | edoumou@un.org
www.rdc-humanitaire.net | www.unocha.org

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