Dear all
All those Who want do something for saleem shahzad's family kindly contact with mr zafar sheikh who is with his family .his phone no is 03215303504 and
Zafarmsheikh@hotmail.com
He will manage any kind of contact with saleem's widow.
Shahzad anwar farooqi
Editor
Power corridor/ghulam gardeshein
03218528529
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Tuesday 28th of Jamadi us-Saani ,1432AH -31/05/2011 N0: PR11029

North Waziristan Operation- Traitors cross yet another red line!

O sincere officers of the Pakistan armed forces! Eject America and her bought up traitors

Admiral Mike Mullen, the US Chief of Joint Staff, has informed us that the preparations for the North Waziristan operations are ready. Just like other important news, it is first broken by America whilst the traitors amongst the Paksitani military and civil leadership remain silent. Despite ten years of military operations, in which thousands of Muslims tribal and soldiers have been killed and hundreds of thousands of children, elderly and women have been made refugees, it appears that the last FATA agency, North Waziristan, is now the next target. The military leadership has said for some time that North Waziristan is a red line that must never be crossed, but like other red lines it is about to be crossed. Pakistan's traitor rulers took a U-turn on Kashmir, washed their hands of strategic depth in Afghanistan, humiliated our nuclear scientists, attacked their own people with tanks and aerial bombardment, gave an open hand to the CIA and the Raymond Davis network to orchestrate bombings, granted America permission to attack Abbotobad, a town which is more secure than military cantonments, so as to present Pakistan as a terrorist state before the entire world. Without doubt there are no red lines for the rulers. The one who crosses the red line of honor can cross any red line. And now that even though the weak evidence of "National Interest" can not defend the traitors evidence, they resort to the weak stance that any opposition to America will result in a war that will send us back to the Stone Age. Though in reality, the US Congress is not even prepared to bear the US$ 10 billion monthly bill for the war in Afghanistan.

So, is America really able to start yet another war? Never! The truth is that America's greatest strength are the traitors within the civil and military leadership of Pakistan. HIzb ut-Tahrir asks the sincere officers of Pakistan's armed forces as to how long they will accept the long lies of the traitors? The only red lines that are left are handing over the nuclear assets and giving India a hand in the affairs of Pakistan!

O sincere officers! Fulfill your oath and liberate this country from the traitors. Remove the traitors amongst the military and civilian leadership and give Hizb ut-Tahrir the Nussrah (Material Support) so that the Khilafah is established which will end the American presence in the region.


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Saleem sb
I do agree with u completely.

Jamil bhatti
Isbd

Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone using my Telenor Persona connection


From: Muhammad Saleem <m.saleem0000@gmail.com>
Sender: Pakistan-Media@yahoogroups.com
Date: Sat, 4 Jun 2011 20:51:06 +0500
To: <Pakistan-MEDIA@yahoogroups.com>
ReplyTo: Pakistan-Media@yahoogroups.com
Cc: <Media-Tribe@googlegroups.com>
Subject: [Pak-Media] Pakistani Media destroying the nation

 

*MEDIA ON DANGEROUS AGENDA*

Whether it is Osama bin laden, war or terror, foreign threats or drone
strikes, certain pakistani news channels (especially Samaa) are not bothered
about these issues. These are not issues in their perspective. Just watch
Samaa tv news agenda and my claim will be easily proven. These channel are
knowingly ignoring the issues faced by this country. They are purposely
showing ridiculous things. What are these channels trying to show? Do they
want our nation to forget real issues? Looks like they want the nation to
think about dating, bollywood movies, fashion, trends, mockery of Islam,
husband wife petty disputes, and different types of dances and music. What
are these morning shows (Maya khan) about? Sex, marriage drama or ridiculing
cultural and religious norms? Is this is left to discuss in a poverty and
terrorism ridden country like Pakistan? Do they have the right to destroy
national integrity? This is shameful and criminal. Their agenda should be
uncovered as well as the funding. They are mocking and ridiculing Pakistan
not the government but Pakistan as a state. There are no journalistic rules
applied in their news agenda. I mean there is literally fabrication of news
reports and even perform drama. PLEASE GO BACK AND LEARN WHAT IS JOURNALISM.
All sort of music runs behind reports on serious issues. They are destroying
national fabric. Their agenda must be uncovered.

Muhammad Saleem

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Let`s Eliminate Indian Terrorists in Bangladesh
By: Abu Zafar Mahmood, USA
Hasina-Monmohan cry wolf jointly. As they could not eliminate the Mosques and transform the Islamic nation in Deen-e-Elahee, Could not impose Hindi instead of Bangla in Bangladesh. Indian interests are to keep Muslim countries unstable as it needs Bangladesh-Pakistan-Afghanistan under their knees for grabbing wealth. Moreover the rapid growth of Bangladesh in terms of modernization and wealth influences over the North-East border Indian districts. It also bring the Delhi`s discrimination to that huge region too. So, Indian strategy of collapsing Bangladesh becomes their one of prime Military agenda. That matches Indian expansionist design. But the USA-Europeanflows of winds turn for Bangladesh. A slogan, �Let`s eliminate Indian Terrorists in Bangladesh� shines on posters.
The Bangladesh administration is controlled by Indian Intelligence-RAW. It already collapsed BDR, weakened Arm-forces. Highest to lowest courts run under the same control. Prime Minister office is treated as RAW regional co-coordinating office. Ministry of Home-Foreign Affairs are directly dictated by the Indian officers. Indian trained Four Lac Eighty six thousand Nine Hundred Sixty (4, 86,960) Fanatic Hindu terrorists are the key fighters that are engaged in Government positions to collapse the sovereignty and Independence at the time sabotage in USA interests. These terrorists are all Indian trained.They instigate the instability of Bangladesh from inside the government. A surprising technique!
India has a long history of using terrorists and sending the hordes across borders. It captured HyderabadJunagarh and Manvadar illegally through police actions. It forced many smaller states to join the Indian Union by force of arms. It sent its forces to illegally capture Srinagar, using a fake article of accession which it now claims is lost�as if it ever existed. It sent militants to Tibet and Aksai Chin instigating a ferocious attack from China. It sent terrorists into Sikkim, and Bhutan and eventually illegally occupied Sikkim. It sent LTTE terrorists into Lanka trying to bifurcate the small peaceful Buddhist Island. It even tried terrorism in Myanmar and Maldives. It motivated the Hindu youths in Refugee camps, armed and engaged the Mukti Bahinee guerrillagroups across the border into East Pakistan in 1971. It than tried to incorporate Bangladesh using the Rakshi Bahinee after Awami League climbed on the government.
Now, Whatever Hasina, Rehana, SajeebJoy, Dipu Moni, Sahara and Ashraf are painting as friendlier relation with India is in real annexation procedure with India that the Fakhruddin-Moinuddin-Iftekharinitiated. Obviously, India needs terrorist regiments as Pakistani Army and ISI are rock to them to defeat whereas Bangladesh is so rootless to them that it purchases the pillars as it needs. Indian officers train and control the civil and military officers in Bangladesh.
An article in one of Canada�s national magazines, Macleans, reported on an interview with a Pakistani ISI spy Farouk, who claimed that India�s intelligence services, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), have �tens of thousands of RAW agents in Pakistan.� Many officials inside Pakistan were convinced that, �India�s endgame is nothing less than the breakup of Pakistan. And the RAW is no novice in that area. In the 1960s, it was actively involved in supporting separatists in Bangladesh, at the time East Pakistan. The eventual victory of Bangladeshi nationalism in 1971 was in large part credited to the support the RAW gave the secessionists.�http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/04/23/new-delhi%E2%80%99s-endgame/
In September of 2008, the editor of Indian Defence Review wrote an article explaining that a stable Pakistan is not in India�s interests: �With Pakistan on the brink of collapse due to massive internal as well as international contradictions, it is matter of time before it ceases to exist.� He explained that Pakistan�s collapse would bring �multiple benefits� to India, including preventing China from gaining a major port in the Indian Ocean, which is in the mutual interest of the United States. The author explained that this would be a �severe jolt� to China�s expansionist aims, and further, �India�s access to Central Asian energy routes will open up.�http://www.indiandefencereview.com/2008/09/stable-pakistan-not-in-indias-interest.html
In August of 2009, Foreign Policy Journal published a report of an exclusive interview they held with former Pakistani ISI chief Lieutenant General Hamid Gul, who was Director General of the powerful intelligence services (ISI) between 1987 and 1989, at a time in which it was working closely with the CIA to fund and arm the Mujahedeen. Once a close ally of the US, he is now considered extremely controversial and the US even recommended the UN to put him on the international terrorist list. Gul explained that he felt that the American people have not been told the truth about 9/11, and that the 9/11 Commission was a �cover up,� pointing out that, �They [the American government] haven�t even proved the case that 9/11 was done by Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda.� He said that the real reasons for the war on Afghanistan were that:
�The U.S. wanted to �reach out to the Central Asian oilfields� and �open the door there�, which �was a requirement of corporate America, because the Taliban had not complied with their desire to allow an oil and gas pipeline to pass through Afghanistan. UNOCAL is a case in point. They wanted to keep the Chinese out. They wanted to give a wider security shield to the state of Israel, and they wanted to include this region into that shield. And that�s why they were talking at that time very hotly about �greater Middle East�. They were redrawing the map.� http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2009/08/12/ex-isi-chief-says-purpose-of-new-afghan-intelligence-agency-rama-is-%E2%80%98to-destabilize-pakistan%E2%80%99/
He also stated that part of the reason for going into Afghanistan was �to go for Pakistan�s nuclear capability,� as the U.S. �signed this strategic deal with India, and this was brokered by Israel. So there is a nexus now between Washington, Tel Aviv, and New Delhi.� When he was asked about the Pakistani Taliban, which the Pakistani government was being pressured to fight, and where the financing for that group came from; Gul stated:
�Yeah, of course they are getting it from across the Durand line, from Afghanistan. And the Mossad is sitting there, RAW is sitting there � the Indian intelligence agency � they have the umbrella of the U.S. And now they have created another organization which is called RAMA. It may be news to you that very soon this intelligence agency � of course, they have decided to keep it covert � but it is Research and Analysis Milli Afghanistan. That�s the name. The Indians have helped create this organization, and its job is mainly to destabilize Pakistan.�
He explained that the Chief of Staff of the Afghan Army had told him that he had gone to India to offer the Indians five bases in Afghanistan, three of which are along the Pakistani border. Gul was asked a question as to why, if the West was supporting the TTP (Pakistani Taliban), would a CIA drone have killed the leader of the TTP. Gul explained that while Pakistan was fighting directly against the TTP leader, Baitullah Mehsud, the Pakistani government would provide the Americans where Mehsud was, �three times the Pakistan intelligence tipped off America, but they did not attack him.� So why all of a sudden did they attack?
Because there were some secret talks going on between Baitullah Mehsud and the Pakistani military establishment. They wanted to reach a peace agreement, and if you recall there is a long history of our tribal areas, whenever a tribal militant has reached a peace agreement with the government of Pakistan, Americans have without any hesitation struck that target.
... there was some kind of a deal which was about to be arrived at � they may have already cut a deal. I don�t know. I don�t have enough information on that. But this is my hunch, that Baitullah was killed because now he was trying to reach an agreement with the Pakistan army. And that�s why there were no suicide attacks inside Pakistan for the past six or seven months.
Further, there were Indian consulates set up in Kandahar, the area of Afghanistan where Canadian troops are located, and which is strategically located next to the Pakistani province of Baluchistan, which is home to a virulent separatist movement, of which Pakistan claims is being supported by India. Macleans reported on the conclusions by Michel Chossudovsky, economics professor at University of Ottawa, that, �the region�s massive gas and oil reserves are of strategic interest to the U.S. and India. A gas pipeline slated to be built from Iran to India, two countries that already enjoy close ties, would run through Baluchistan. The Baluch separatist movement, which is also active in Iran, offers an ideal proxy for both the U.S. and India to ensure their interests are met.�
Even an Afghan government adviser told the media that India was using Afghan territory to destabilize Pakistan.http://www.app.com.pk/en_/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=72423&Itemid=2
In September of 2009, the Pakistan Daily reported that captured members and leaders of the Pakistani Taliban have admitted to being trained and armed by India through RAW or RAMA in Afghanistan in order to fight the Pakistani Army.http://www.daily.pk/proof-captured-ttp-terrorists-admit-to-being-indian-raw-agents-11015/
The Council on Foreign Relations published a backgrounder report on RAW, India�s intelligence agency, founded in 1968 �primarily to counter China's influence, [however] over time it has shiftedits focus to India's other traditional rival, Pakistan.� For over three decades both Indian and Pakistani intelligence agencies have been involved in covert operations against one another. One of RAW�s main successes was its covert operations in East Pakistan, now known as Bangladesh, which �aimed at fomenting independence sentiment� and ultimately led to the separation of Bangladesh by directly funding, arming and training the Pakistani separatists. Further, as the Council on Foreign Relations noted, �From the early days, RAW had a secret liaison relationship with the Mossad, Israel's external intelligence agency.�http://www.cfr.org/publication/17707/
Bangladesh is in the endgame of destabilization. The Indian trained militants are already positioned to damage and eliminate the patriotic elements and collapse the sovereignty and independence of Bangladesh. The next scene is waiting to appear as it faces challenges. Indian terrorization and collapsing Bangladesh is far different than Pakistan-Afghan battle field in more cases.
Of course, the Obama administration has opened a new strategy on Bangladesh and it`s near that the real Bangladeshi nationalists are sourcing supports recently. Ex-Prime MinisterKhaleda Zia`s significant visit in Washington DC,NewJersy and New York as the leader of the opposition in Bangladesh National parliament in last weekwill bring face to face the Indian terrorists and Bangladeshi nationalists inDhaka. The professionals and Journalists are desperate under the leadership of renowned Journalist Mahmudur Rahman called for up rise to topple down the government. The World super power prefers to see the down fall of the Hasina government soon that`s the observers assumption.India is taken in partnership on Afghanistan and Pakistan sector with NATO and on the other hand the Bangladesh and up to China will be controlled by USA direct. That will come up.
(Writer is free-lancer Journalist and political analyst.E-mail:rivercrossinternational@yahoo.com &azmnyc@gmail.com Date: Washington DC, June 04, 2011.)

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by Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya

May 28, 2011


As an old Chinese proverb says, crisis can be used as an opportunity by some. 

Tel Aviv, Washington and NATO are taking advantage of the upheavals in the Arab World. Not only are they fighting against the legitimate aspirations of the Arab people, they are manipulating  the Arab geo-political landscape as part of their strategy to control Eurasia.

Sectarian Conflicts in Egypt: A Means to Weaken the Egyptian State

Egypt is ruled by a counter-revolutionary military junta. Despite the increasing assertiveness of the Egyptian people, the old regime is still in place. Yet, its foundations are becoming shakier as the Egyptian people become more radical in their demands. 

Like in the Mubarak era, the military regime in Cairo is also allowing sectarianism to spread in Egypt in an effort to create divisions within Egyptian society. In early-2011 when Egyptians stormed government buildings they discovered secret papers that showed that the regime was behind the attacks on Egypt's Christian community.

Recently, so-called  Salafist extremists have attacked Egyptian minorities including Christians but also Shiite Muslims. Egyptian activists and leaders in the Coptic and Shia community are pointing their fingers at the military junta in Cairo, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.

The Egyptian military junta, Tel Aviv, and the Al-Sauds are all part of an ominous alliance. This grouping is the backbone of the U.S. imperial structure in the Arab World. They are dependent on Washington. They prevail inasmuch as the U.S. remains dominant in Southwest Asia and North Africa.

The Al-Sauds are now working with Washington in Egypt to establish a supposedly Islamic government. This is being done through political parties that the Al-Sauds have funded and helped organize. The new so-called Salafist movements are primary examples of this. It also appears that the Muslim Brotherhood or at least branches of it have been co-opted. 

The Saudi-Israeli Alliance and the Politics of Division  

The ties of the Al-Sauds to Tel Aviv have in recent years become increasingly visible and pervasive. This secret Israeli-Saudi alliance exists within the context of a broader Khaliji-Israeli alliance. The alliance with Israel is formed through strategic cooperation between the ruling families of Saudi Arabia and the Arab sheikhdoms in the Persian Gulf. 

Together Israel and the Khaliji ruling families form a frontline for Washington and NATO against Iran and its regional allies. The alliance also acts on behalf of Washington to destabilize the region. The roots of chaos in Southwest Asia and North Africa are this Khaliji-Israeli alliance.

In line with the U.S. and the E.U., it is the alliance formed by Israel and the Khaliji rulers that has worked to create ethnic divisions between Arabs and Iranians, religious divisions between Muslims and Christians, and confessional divisions between Sunnis and Shiites. It is the "politics of division" or "fitna" that has also served to keep the Khaliji ruling families in power and Israel in its place. Israel and the Khaliji ruling families would not survive without the regional fitna.

The Al-Sauds and Tel Aviv are the authors of the Hama-Fatah split and the estrangement of Gaza from the West Bank. They have worked together in the 2006 war against Lebanon with a view to crushing Hezbollah and its political allies. Saudi Arabia and Israel have also cooperated in spreading sectarianism and sectarian violence in Lebanon, Iraq, the Persian Gulf, Iran, and now Egypt.

Israel and the Khaliji monarchies serve Washington in its objective to ultimately neutralize Iran and its allies, as well as any form of resistance against the U.S. in Southwest Asia and North Africa. This is why the Pentagon has been heavily arming Tel Aviv and the Khaliji sheikhdoms. Washington has also been setting up missile shields aimed at Iran and Syria in Israel and the Arab sheikhdoms.

 

Iranophobia

The alliance between the Khaliji sheikhdoms and Israel has been instrumental in creating a wave of Iranophobia in the Arab World. The ultimate objective of Iranophobia is to transform Iran in the eyes of Arab public opinion, into an enemy of the Arab people, thereby distracting attention from the real enemies of the Arab World, namely the neo-colonial powers which occupy and control Arab lands. 

Iranophobia is a PsyOp, an instrument of propaganda. The strategic objective is to isolate Iran and reconfigure the geo-political landscape of Southwest Asia and North Africa. Moreover, Iranophobia has been used by the Khaliji ruling families, from the U.A.E. to Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, as a pretext for the repression of their own people, who are demanding basic freedoms and democratic rights in the sheikhdoms. 

The March 14 Alliance in Lebanon, which is a collection of Khaliji-U.S. clients and Israeli allies, has also used Iranophobia and the "politics of division" to try to attack Hezbollah and its political allies in Lebanon The objective is to weaken and undermine Lebanese-Iranian and Lebanese-Syrian ties. The March 14 Alliance, specifically the Hariri-controlled Future Movement, has imported into Lebanon the so-called Salafist fighters of Fatah Al-Islam with the objective of getting them to attack Hezbollah. The Future Movement has also had a role in the Israeli-Saudi-U.S. project to destabilize Syria and remove it from the Resistance Bloc.


Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya specializes in the Middle East and Central Asia. He is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG).


 Global Research Articles by Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya


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Assalam Alaikum

Allah's commandments are clear. 

Surah 2 [154]. And say not of those who are slain in the way of Allah. "They are dead." Nay, they are living, though ye perceive (it) not.

Surah 5 [51] O ye who believe! take not the Jews and the Christians for your friends and protectors: They are but friends and protectors to each other. And he amongst you that turns to them (for friendship) is of them. Verily Allah guideth not a people unjust.


In view of the above commandments, do you still belive that Pakistan should stay in American camp and accept advice and guidance from Washington?

Shaikh Mohommad

 

----- Original Message -----

From: Usman Khalid

Sent: 06/04/11 04:05 PM

To: 'Bangla Vision', 'Falcon Spirit', 'Kashnet', 'Pak Editor', 'Pak Media', 'Pakistan Affairs', 'Pakistan Front', 'Pakistan Post'

Subject: [PakistanAffairs] A Mutiny Grows in the Punjab by Anatol Lieven


 

 

A Mutiny Grows in Punjab


By Anatol Lieven

Published in 'National Interest' of March-April 2011

 

(While the Indo-Zionist lobby continues to make its case for the US to 'deal with nuclear Pakistan' before it leaves Afghanistan, the consensus in the US establishment  is that it is in their national interest that Pakistan avoids collapse and disintegration. Those in Pakistan who revile the US help the Indo-Zionist lobby to make their case. It is India's policy objective that Pakistan falls victim to forces of disintegration. Demonising the Punjab and the Army which hold Pakistan together is the principal means by which the enemies of Pakistan hope to succeed. Rifah Party hold the view that Pakistan should fight the Indo-Zionist lobbies in the US with the help of the wise in their establishment who see that that the interests of Pakistan and the US are complementary. +Usman Khalid+ Secretary General Rifah Party of Pakistan.)

 

 

 

U.S. STRATEGY toward Pakistan is focused on trying to get Islamabad to give serious help to Washington's campaign against the Afghan Taliban. There are two rather large problems with this approach. The first is that it is never going to happen. As U.S. diplomats in Pakistan themselves recognize (and as was made ever so clear by the WikiLeaks dispatches), both Pakistani strategic calculations and the feelings of the country's population make it impossible for Islamabad to take such a step, except in return for U.S. help against India—which Washington also cannot deliver.

 

The second problem is that it gets America's real priorities in the region back to front. The war in Afghanistan is a temporary U.S. interest, in which the chief concern is not the reality of victory or defeat as such (if only because neither can be clearly defined) but preserving some appearance of success in order to avoid the damage to American military prestige that would result from obvious failure. By contrast, preserving the Pakistani state and containing the terrorist threat to the West from Pakistan is a permanent vital interest not only of the U.S. military and political establishments but of every American citizen.

And while the prospects for any sort of real success in Afghanistan look gloomy indeed, if saving Pakistan is the real priority, then things do not look so desperate, despite all the bad news from that country. This is because while getting large numbers of Pakistanis to help America is virtually impossible, getting enough Pakistanis to preserve their existing state is much easier. To a great extent, this is for negative reasons: the elites, and indeed many of the masses, have an acute sense of the horrors that would result from the country's collapse. However, a degree of positive loyalty is also present in one key institution and in one key province: namely the military and the Punjab. If Pakistan is to be broken as a state, it will be on the streets of Lahore and other great Punjabi cities, not in the Pashtun mountains. By the same token, the greatest potential terrorist threat to the United States and its Western allies from the region stems not from the illiterate and isolated Pashtuns but from Islamist groups based in urban Punjab, with their far-higher levels of sophistication and their international links, above all to the Pakistani diaspora in the West.

 

OF COURSE, the United States and some of its allies are embroiled in a war in Afghanistan, from which they have to try to extract themselves without humiliation. Inevitably, this conflict creates priorities of its own. Indeed, if the war in Afghanistan is to be America's priority, then present U.S. concentration on the Pashtun areas of Pakistan is logical, since they are adjacent to Afghanistan, and it is there that the Taliban have their bases and from there that they draw much of their support (it is worth remembering that a majority of Pashtuns live in Pakistan, not Afghanistan, and that cross-border ties have always been very close).

 

Nonetheless, it is essential that the makers of U.S. strategy also keep in mind the vital long-term interests of the United States and the safety of its citizens, interests which will remain long after the last American soldier has left Afghanistan. I have been struck, both in the United States and in Britain, by the tendency of officers and officials to speak and write as if protecting the lives of troops from Taliban attack is the first duty of the U.S. and British states. In fact, it is the duty of soldiers to risk their lives to protect the civilian populations of their countries, and the only valid reason why the U.S. and British militaries are in Afghanistan at all is to protect their fellow citizens from terrorism. If that equation is reversed, and the needs of the war in Afghanistan are actually worsening the terrorist threat to the U.S. and British homelands, then our campaign there becomes not just strategically but morally ludicrous.

This statement is not intended as a standard attack either on the overweening power of the American armed forces or on the country's "militarism."

 

Paradoxically, the U.S. military is not in general a militarist force in the shaping of U.S. policy, if one gives "militarist" its old connotations of aggression and warmongering. Under the last Bush administration, the military was far more cautious than many of the president's political appointees, and military opposition reportedly played an important part in blocking a U.S. attack on Iran in the last year of Bush's second term. Military caution is rooted in a strong and realistic sense of the limits on America's resources and of the potentially catastrophic risks of further open-ended military commitments. The role of the armed forces in shaping and limiting a U.S. administration's options may be questionable under the Constitution, but it is something for which we may have good reason to be grateful under a future Republican president after 2012 or 2016.

 

On the other hand, if the U.S. military is already in a war, it does not like to be seen to lose it. This is as it should be. No country should want its armed forces to be made up of quitters. And, of course, apart from military pride, it is of great importance to U.S. power in the world, and to the struggle against Islamist extremism, that America not be seen to leave Afghanistan in defeat. But there comes a time in many wars when victory itself becomes so elusive, and the costs of pursuing it so great, that a broader and more detached view of national interests sees that these are best served by some form of compromise. This seems to me to be becoming the case in Afghanistan; not because of the costs of the Afghan war itself, which are bearable, but because of the way in which that conflict is destabilizing and radicalizing Pakistan, risking a geopolitical catastrophe for the United States—and the world—which would dwarf anything that could possibly occur in Afghanistan.

 

THAT PAKISTAN is quite simply far more important to the region, the West and the international community than Afghanistan is a matter not of sentiment but of mathematics. With around 184 million people, Pakistan has nearly six times the population of Afghanistan—or Iraq—over twice the population of Iran and almost two-thirds the population of the entire Arab world put together.

A central fact tends to be missed, in part because it is a deeply uncomfortable one for Americans, with their instinctive faith in democracy and their inborn desire to be liked and respected by other nations: that (and with deep regret I can attest to this from my own numerous interviews in Pakistan) the Afghan Taliban enjoy the sympathy of the overwhelming majority of Pakistanis at every level of society. And so the U.S. war there—and America's demands of Pakistani assistance—are weakening the state. The support for the Taliban is not based in their religious ideology, which is alien to most Pakistanis. It is so prevalent because, as with the anti-Soviet mujahideen of the 1980s (who were also not admired for their extremist ideals), the Taliban are seen as a legitimate force of resistance against an alien occupation of the country.

 

Underlying this is a hatred of U.S. strategy—and to some extent, hatred of the United States as a whole—which, as repeated opinion surveys have indicated, is among the highest in the world. This feeling is reflected in the fact (which I can also attest to from my own experience) that the overwhelming majority of Pakistanis believe that 9/11 was a CIA and/or Mossad plot intended to justify a U.S. invasion and conquest of parts of the Muslim world. That this is poisonously evil rubbish which no one with two brain cells should be able to believe isn't the point. The point is that Pakistanis do believe it, and this belief both reflects and reinforces their hatred of America and of Pakistan's alliance with the United States.

 

In the West, politicians and the media have attacked the Pakistani government and military for not doing enough to help us against the Afghan Taliban. The great majority of Pakistanis by contrast think that Islamabad is doing far too much.These beliefs and sentiments are dangerous in a wider context as well, since they are wholly shared among people of Pakistani origin in the cities of Great Britain. And it is members of this minority in the UK who pose the greatest potential terrorist threat to the West from within the West. In their weakest incarnation, these anti-U.S. feelings create a willingness to make excuses for anti-Western terrorism; in their strongest, they may lead to active support and even participation in violence.

 

The help of the Pakistani intelligence services to Britain has been vital in identifying the links of these potential terrorists to groups in Pakistan, and to preventing more attacks on the UK and elsewhere in Europe. Islamabad therefore has been only a partial ally in the "war on terror"—but still a critical and irreplaceable one. For we need to remember that in the end, it is only legitimate Muslim governments and security services that can control terrorist plots on their soil. Western pressure may be necessary to push them in the right direction, but we need to be careful that this pressure does not become so overwhelming that it undermines or even destroys those governments by humiliating them in the eyes of their own people. More threatening by far, however, is that these beliefs and feelings are almost certainly shared by a majority of Pakistani soldiers—who are to some extent insulated from society by military discipline and culture, but who obviously cannot be cut off from the influence of their families.

 

The greatest potential catalyst for a collapse of the Pakistani state is not the Islamist militants themselves, who are in my view far too weak and divided to achieve this (a capacity for murderous terrorism should not be confused with a capacity for successful revolution); it is that actions by the United States will provoke a mutiny of parts of the military. Should that happen, the Pakistani state would collapse very quickly indeed, with all the disasters that this would entail.

And, of course, Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons and one of the most powerful armies in Asia. Western fears have been focused on the threat that Pakistani nuclear arms (or more realistically, the materials and expertise to make a "dirty bomb") might fall into the hands of terrorists; but a more immediate threat is that a fraying of the Pakistani military would lead to enormous quantities of conventional munitions (including antiaircraft missiles) and large numbers of trained technicians and engineers making their way into the terrorist camp. This would enormously increase the terrorist danger to the West, even if the Pakistani military as a whole held together. If the army and the state were to disintegrate completely, the consequences hardly bear thinking about.

 

It is essential to remember in this context that while the leadership of the Afghan Taliban has enjoyed a measure of official shelter in Pakistan (especially in northern Baluchistan and the city of Quetta, where several of them are credibly reported to be based), the Pakistani military has not actually supported the Afghan Taliban with sophisticated weapons, in the way that Pakistan, the United States, Britain, Saudi Arabia and other countries supported the Afghan mujahideen against the Soviets. This is obvious from the Taliban's lack of sophisticated weaponry and training. Indeed, even in June 2010, according to a briefing by the British military which I attended, they were still far behind the Iraqi insurgents even in the construction of improvised explosive devices.

This should serve as a stark reminder of just how much more Pakistancould do to help the Afghan Taliban (and other anti-Western groups) if the Pakistani state and military, or the relationship between Islamabad and Washington, were to completely fall apart. It is this terrifying outcome that present U.S. strategy in the region risks producing.

 

IF THE Pakistani army were a chiefly Pashtun army, then it might well have disintegrated already, given the strength of Taliban support among that ethnic group and the links between the Pashtuns of Pakistan and those of Afghanistan. Fortunately, the Pakistani army is mainly Punjabi, more specifically a northern Punjabi force—and throughout Pakistani history, Punjab and the army have had a deep reciprocal influence, especially in terms of that complex, ambiguous, deeply flawed, very weak but surprisingly strong sentiment: Pakistani Muslim nationalism. Indeed, Pakistani nationalism is very feeble except in the extremely powerful institution of the military and the very strong province of Punjab (or part of it) from which that institution is chiefly drawn.

 

With some 56 percent of Pakistan's population, Punjab would naturally dominate the country and provide most of its soldiers. In fact though, the proportion of Punjabis in the army is around 75 percent (mainly from a few districts in the northwest of the province). Punjab's weight within Pakistan, however, is not simply due to its domination of the military-bureaucratic establishment. The northern and some of the central districts of the province also possess almost three-quarters of Pakistan's industry and its most productive agriculture.

 

This economic dynamism is due to two factors above all: the great British and Pakistani irrigation schemes of the 1880s–1950s and the impact of the Punjabi Muslim refugees who fled from Indian East Punjab in 1947. Like many migrants, the experience of being uprooted and shaken out of old patterns of life instilled in these people a new sense of economic initiative. It also fostered a deep hatred of India. This went on to fuel both the Pakistani military's obsession with the Indian threat and mass support for the jihadist groups, which from the end of the 1980s on began to launch attacks, first in Indian Kashmir, then in the rest of India. Herein lie the origins of what the Pakistani politician and former ambassador to Washington, Syeda Abida Hussain, has called Pakistan's "Prussian Bible Belt" in Punjab, a phrase linking the region's strong military ties with some of its increasingly militant forms of Islam.

 

In Punjab, quite unlike the other provinces of the country, not only the great majority of the Punjabi establishment, but a great many ordinary Punjabis associate their provincial identity with that of Pakistan as a whole. The identities of most of Pakistan's other nationalities are to a considerable extent shaped by their differences with the Punjabis (except for the Urdu-speaking Mohajirs whose ancestors migrated from India to Karachi and Hyderabad after 1947) and their ambiguous relationship with the Pakistani state.

 

Many Punjabis by contrast believe that they are the state, and if they define themselves against anybody else, it is against India. As a senior official (of Mohajir origin) in Islamabad remarked sourly, "The difficulty about writing on Punjab as a province is that they think and behave as if they are the whole damn country." This Punjabi commitment to Pakistani nationalism has profoundly shaped the country, and is indeed responsible for Pakistan's survival as a state.

THE OVERTHROW of the regime can never happen in peripheral areas like Waziristan, Baluchistan or even Karachi. It would have to happen in Punjab. A main reason for this: if mass Islamist unrest were to take place in the northern part of the province, the military high command would have to be very worried about its troops refusing to fight against the rebellion.

 

A revolution from below in Punjab, however, would have to take place not just against the national government in Islamabad but against the provincial government in Lahore. While the national government is led by the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), headed by the Bhutto-Zardaris, and is now widely loathed across much of Punjab, the provincial government is made up of the Pakistan Muslim League–N (PLM-N) run by the Sharif brothers—now in opposition at the national level. And while within Pakistan the national government is generally seen (however unfairly) as having become highly subservient to America, the Sharifs have sought with some success to portray themselves as moderate Islamists who would take a more independent line when in national power.

 

Whether when actually in control—which they are certain to be sooner or later—the Sharifs would do anything very different vis-à-vis America is rather unlikely. In the countryside, the PML-N depends on the same networks of "feudal" power, kinship and patronage as the PPP. These "feudals" are tightly bound to the state by the webs of political patronage (or, if you prefer, corruption) which have long formed the most important part of their income.

 

Examining the history of powerful local families in Pakistan, again and again you discover that while kinship links and local property are important, the breakthrough to real prominence came when they were able to be elected to Parliament (or selected by a military government) and thereby gained the ability to milk the state for benefits. The collapse of Pakistan would destroy all that and throw them back on the exiguous and fragile profits of their estates and urban rents. In the cities of northern Punjab, the PML-N is much more closely linked to the industrialist class from which the Sharifs themselves were drawn into politics by then–President of Pakistan and Chief of Army Staff General Mohammad Zia ul-Haq in the 1980s. This class, which depends overwhelmingly on its ability to export textiles to the outside world, is also acutely aware of the shattering damage to the Pakistani economy and its own interests that would result from a collapse in relations with the United States and the imposition of trade sanctions on Pakistan.

 

Equally important, the industrialists, like the "feudals," are by their very nature an antirevolutionary force, fearful of the threat to their wealth and power from Islamist revolution. Both classes are also attached to Pakistan as a state by strong motives of collective interest. The industrialists depend on the existence of Pakistan for their very well-being. If the country were to fall apart, their industries would be ruined.Indeed, an Islamist revolution and the collapse of Pakistan are synonymous. This is a crucially important point, both because it is true and because enough Pakistanis know that it is true. This means an Islamist revolt that overthrows the existing state is not impossible, but it is highly unlikely—and only feasible if accompanied by a mutiny within the military. And it is simply impossible that such an uprising could lead to the establishment of an effective and united Islamist radical government, whether of the Iranian or the Taliban variety. Pakistan is too weak for the first and too strong for the second.

 

In Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's movement was able to seize control of a relatively powerful state apparatus and, equally important, to fuse religious ideology with extremely strong and popular traditions of Iranian nationalism. Pakistan as a whole possesses no such nationalism, and while Punjab and the military have held the country together, they have never been remotely powerful enough to impose Pakistani nationalism on the very different traditions of the other provinces. On the other hand, Pakistan is a much more developed and complicated country than Afghanistan, which the Taliban were able to conquer in the years after 1994, albeit in the teeth of strong resistance from the non-Pashtun ethnicities.

 

If the Pakistani state collapsed, the result would be not successful national revolution but a whole set of horrible local ethnic wars, in which much of the country would quickly be reduced from its present just-about-bearable level of existence to that of Somalia or the Congo.Once the current regime fell, it would be impossible to put it back together again because India would almost certainly make it its business to prevent Pakistan's reconstitution by supporting local ethnic groups in their struggle for continued independence.Deeply unpleasant though the choice is, the United States may have to accept a tactical setback in Afghanistan rather than risk strategic defeat in Pakistan. For if the picture drawn here is correct, then the U.S. and British soldiers are in effect dying in Afghanistan in order to make the world more dangerous for American and British peoples.

 

AMERICAN AND British soldiers are dying in order to avoid the costs of failure: the negative effect this would have on America's prestige in the world, on the reputation and morale of the U.S. and UK armed forces, and on the confidence of our extremist enemies. So, a humiliating scuttle from Afghanistan is not at all desirable. How to square this miserable and tragic circle? A new U.S. strategy must recognize that it is essential to ease the pressure on Pakistan, above all by reducing those factors which are increasing radicalization in the country and weakening the status and strength of the Pakistani state and army.

 

This should lead to a complete withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan—as soon as possible. At present, Washington's intention is to pull most ground troops out once the Afghan security forces are capable of fighting on their own, but to leave major U.S. air bases and Special Forces in country to support them. This is badly mistaken, from three points of view. First, as long as U.S. troops remain in Afghanistan, the Taliban leadership will continue to fight. They have stated that again and again, and the view of both sympathizers and experts is that they could not abandon that stance without absolutely unacceptable disgrace. And as long as they continue to fight, Afghans and Pakistanis will be willing to join them.

 

It should be remembered that the Soviets withdrew completely from Afghanistan in 1989—and by reducing the nationalist element of support for the mujahideen, they actually strengthened the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. If American forces remain, then the government in Kabul will inevitably go on being seen as a U.S. puppet. The war in Afghanistan might be diminished, but it will continue indefinitely, and so—much more importantly—will the destabilization of Pakistan. To reduce Pakistani mass fear and hatred of the United States, it is essential that America be seen clearly to take a step back from its presence on the ground in a Muslim country and region. Second, the continued presence of U.S. bases will make it far more difficult for Washington to develop what should be its core strategy in the region: handing responsibility for guaranteeing Afghanistan's security to the major regional states. In particular, China, which on the one hand fears the Taliban but on the other is very close to Pakistan, may prove crucial in the long term to forging a regional consensus on this issue.

 

Nothing of the sort can emerge, however, as long as these states can leave Afghan security to America, while fearing that Washington's real motive for keeping bases is not to fight the Taliban but to build up U.S. regional power.

Finally, to retain a military presence in Afghanistan will mean continual embroilment in Afghan politics—and the general future outline of this seems rather clear. If the United States continues its present strategy of building up the Afghan National Army while the state and the political systems remain weak and dysfunctional, then sooner or later the military will seize power.

 

Yet, Afghanistan's deep ethnic, political and regional differences would likely lead not to more effective government but to new clashes and further coups and countercoups. If U.S. troops are present in Afghanistan, then Washington will be drawn into these new conflicts as referee, participant or both—and will thereby confirm every belief in Muslim minds about America's desire to dominate and weaken the Muslim world.

 

The U.S. strategy should therefore be to continue the present offensive and efforts to buy up local Taliban commanders, while at the same time seeking initial contacts with the Taliban leadership using Pakistan as an intermediary. In other words, the purpose of the offensive should not be victory but a more advantageous deal with the insurgents. The basic terms of this should be Taliban control of the south of the country, continued development aid to this region and some participation in central government in return for the exclusion of al-Qaeda, a crackdown on the heroin trade and recognition of the Afghan national government. If successful, such a deal would surely involve a measure of humiliation for the United States, but would also have certain real advantages.

Above all, however, the removal of the hated American presence, and the end of U.S. attacks inside Pakistan, would greatly diminish impulses to radicalize in that country, especially if the United States can help develop that state economically (admittedly a horribly difficult process, especially under the present Pakistani government).

 

It is the possible collapse of Pakistan, not the outcome of the present war in Afghanistan, which is the really terrible threat to America and its allies from this part of the Muslim world. ++

 

 

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