100%: The increase in antigovernment protests associated with a 10% rise
in global food prices
Despotic leaders, entrenched inequality and new forms of communication have
all played their roles in the political turmoil now shaking the Middle
East. But new research by economists at the International Monetary Fund
points to another potential contributor: global food prices.
Looking at food prices and instances of political unrest from 1970 through
2007, the economists — Rabah Arezki and Markus Brueckner — find a
significant relationship between the two in low-income countries, a group that
includes Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan and Yemen. To be exact, a 10% increase in
international food prices corresponds to an added 0.5 antigovernment protests
over the following year in the low-income world — a twofold increase from the
annual average.
Given the recent trend in food prices, leaders of low-income countries — a
group that also includes China — might have reason for concern. In
February, global food prices were up 61% from their most recent low point in
December 2008, according to the IMF. What's more, the research suggests the
effect of food prices has increased in recent years.
Wealthy nations such as the U.S. appear to have less to fear. The
economists found no correlation between food prices and political unrest in
high-income countries.
That said, not everybody in wealthy countries enjoys a high income. The 24
million American households in the bottom quintile by income, for example,
spend an average of 35% of their after-tax income on food, according to the
Labor Department. Over the past three months, the price of food in the
U.S. has risen at an annualized rate of about 5%. That's not as bad as the
rise in global food prices, but still enough to make a lot of people angry.
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