This is a viewpoint of a US Analyst and hope Pakistani intellectuals
will respond him with arguments
Pakistan's Decline
By Michael Krepon
It has become difficult to identify positive trend lines in Pakistan,
where growing nuclear stockpiles provide no protection against bad
governance and great misfortune. Two positive indicators in recent
years were a vigorously free media and the lawyers' movement that
prompted the departure of the last military ruler who stayed too long,
Pervez Musharraf. These hopeful developments now appear in a
different light. Many media outlets constantly drip poison into
Pakistan's political bloodstream. Progressive voices are few in
number and under great strain. Lawyers do not leap to the task of
prosecuting Muslim assassins and those who plan bomb blasts in markets
and mosques. The central government fails badly at delivering public
services.
The country's founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, rightly complained that
England bequeathed Pakistan a moth-eaten state due to its odd
geographical boundaries. Rampant corruption eats away at what's left
of the state's fabric, most evocatively in the detention of the former
Minister of Religious Affairs, Hamid Saeed Kazmi. Kazmi, a member of
President Asif Ali Zadari's party, is accused of ripping off pilgrims
during the Hajj.
Pakistan's strategic culture feeds on grievances and threat
inflation. Its political culture has devolved into little more than
point scoring and deflecting responsibility. The case of the recently
released Raymond Davis, alleged robbery victim turned deadly avenger,
fuses all of the above. U.S.-Pakistan ties are worst I can recall in
almost two decades of visits, and are likely to deteriorate further.
Washington is enmeshed in counter-productive tactics in pursuit of a
muddled strategy, as is evident by the drone attacks on Pakistani soil
along the Afghan border.
Will Pakistan go the way of Tunisia and Egypt? There is, after all, a
demographic time bomb happening in Pakistan as in other Muslim
countries. Young people have many reasons for bitter resentment. And
still, Pakistanis persevere. An off-the-books economy keeps the
country going, even though inflation is above 15% and rising, few pay
taxes, and the avoidance of hard choices is foreclosing economic
growth and foreign investment.
Almost everyone consulted on a recent trip (admittedly a very narrow
sampling) dismissed the possibility of a popular revolt. The only
well defined unifying national impulse is dissatisfaction with the
status quo; almost everything else – including the role of religion in
the state – divides. There are many outlets to let off steam.
Stifling autocracy isn't the problem in Pakistan: different
governments, civilian and military, have been tried. Governments
change after failing, but familiar faces and terrible problems endure.
Mass protests in Pakistan are usually not spontaneous. Catalytic,
nation-wide protests would make it very hard for any government to
keep the country stitched together.
Pakistani military officers told me that, like their Egyptian
brethren, they would refuse to fire on protesters. Presently, it seems
unlikely that they would face this dilemma. There appears to be
widespread resignation, not anger, directed at the current government,
and recognition that there are no quick and simple answers to the
country's plight. Pakistan feels to this outsider like a country in
depression, not on the brink of upheaval. Then again, I'm in no
position to sense a bottom-up revolution in Pakistan.
Might this mood of depression pave the way for a government led by
religious extremists? Voting blocks in Pakistan tend to be very well
defined, although as a result of the current rot, voting preferences
might change. As is evident from the current government's back-
peddling on reforming the blasphemy law, religious zealots have less
of a need to assume high office: even if religious parties remain a
distinct minority, they have good reason to believe that the
authorities will not push back against their favored causes. Extremism
in the defense of Pakistan is becoming less of a vice.
Many groups are well armed in Pakistan. Some fight each other. Some
fight U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan. Some fight and do
deals with the Pakistan military. Some, most notably Laskhar-e-Toiba,
remain linked to the security apparatus, serving as unconventional
reserves in the event of a war with India – a war that the LeT might
spark by attacking iconic targets on Indian soil. With the renewal of
Indo-Pakistan dialogue and the possibility of modest agreements, the
likelihood of another high-profile attack within India grows,
especially if the Pakistan Army leadership opposes meaningful steps
toward normalization. India is the proud possessor of three new
airports in New Delhi, Hyderabad and Bangalore. They are poorly
secured, and there are many other targets to choose from.
Michael Krepon is the co-founder of the Stimson Center.
A longer version of this essay appeared on armscontrolwonk.com
I. If you want to receive individual emails
II. Receive one mail with all activity in it
III. Do not want to receive any mail at all
Regards,
Tariq Khattak, Group Manager,
GSM = 0300-9599007 and 0333-9599007
+92-300-9599007 and +92-333-9599007
Tariqgulkhattak@gmail.com
Tariqgulkhattak@hotmail.com
REQUESTS:
1)Please directly contact sender for personal/individual correspondence.
2)Try to discuss issues that will catch attention of many readers.
3)Please avoid sending messages in any language other than English
4)Avoid sending messages addressed to many recipients.
5)Do not send messages aimed at personal publicity.
6)Please do not send personal/other links unless necessary.
7)The Group is not obliged to publish printed news,
very short/long comments and objectionable material.
8)Every mail cannot be published; it will overload Mailboxes
of our valued members.
9)Try to Disagree Without Being Disagreeable, Unsympathetic and/or Unpleasant.
x==x==x==x==x==x
Please note that,
It is a common platform for journalists and all others who are interested in knowing about the issues that are sometimes not reported. This group favours philosophy of progress, reform and the protection of civil liberties. Please share and educate others. The owners and managers of this site do not necessarily agree with any of the information. It is an open forum; everyone is allowed to share anything. Mails sent by members and non-members are subject to approval. However, we are not responsible in any way for the contents of mails / opinion sent by members. We do not guarantee that the information will be completely accurate. (Nor can print and electronic media). If you find content on this site which you feel is inappropriate or inaccurate, incomplete, or useless you are most welcome to report it or contradict it.
Thanks a lot.
0 comments:
Post a Comment
Gujranwalafun@Aol.com
Gujranwala@windiowslive.com