Re: [Pak-Media] IMF Bombshell: Age of America Nears End

The one-sided, alarmist prognosis by Mr Kamal Khan is not very helpful -- just amusing. Considering he is amongst the conspiracy theorists who believe 9/11 was an inside job, this rant suits him.

Sure the US economy is in dire straights (it's fiscal issues are a nightmare) and China will be the biggest economy by about 2015. Personally, I think that will be wonderful -- provided China also takes on the responsibilities that come with being No. 1 -- including improving their human rights record and being less aggressive with their currency which is destroying jobs world-wide and not only in America. I look forward to a Chinese being the Managing Director of the IMF (the Americans will never give up the Presidency of the World Bank and the Japanese will continue to hold the top position in the Asian Development Bank). And why not?!

The Chinese yuan will soon be included in the IMF's SDR currency basket (a matter of great prestige). The yuan may soon become an internationally traded currency but not just yet. The dollar will continue to show weakness as long as US growth remains lackluster and below-trend and unemployment is high. But a weak dollar is good for US exports and makes US imports more expensive contributing to external account adjustment.

In the meantime there will be a flight to quality, namely gold which just crossed $1,500 per ounce.

Since the global economy is closely inter-connected, we should not gloat over the US' misfortunes. The US, the UK and the European economies (all in deep trouble with some having turned to the IMF for emergency assistance and others such as Spain, Portugal and perhaps even Italy about to go over the edge) are our export markets, where our capital/aid comes from and where our workers who send back Pakistan millions of dollars as remittances to sustain our economy reside. It is also the source of our high-tech imports. We should hope that the global economy revives steadily and that it broadens. If it stalls, or there is a double-dip recession, it will hurt Pakistan as an open import-remittance-and-aid-dependent country proportionately more than it will hurt the advanced countries. They have the safety nets to protect their poor; we don't.

It will be a very long time before countries will stop buying US government paper -- including the Chinese. It is true S&P, the rating agency, has recently sounded a warning on US debt. But after the last financial crash in 2008-09, the reputation of all rating agencies is in tatters. These were the same rating agencies giving AAA marks to sub-prime (junk) mortgage-backed securities which companies like Goldman Sacks were selling to their prime clients while at the same time betting that they would fail.

This is a complex subject and just some random thoughts on a warm and sunny afternoon which thankfully heralds a much-awaited Spring in the US Northeast.

MAA

USA

In a message dated 4/29/2011 12:12:05 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time, ksherry59@yahoo.com writes:

----- Forwarded Message -----
From: KAMAL KHAN <kamalkhan_171@yahoo.com>
To: Pakistan-Media@yahoogroups.com
Cc: Media-Tribe@googlegroups.com
Sent: Thursday, April 28, 2011 3:16 PM
Subject: Fw: [Pak-Media] IMF Bombshell: Age of America Nears End

Let everyone be very very clear about what's going on in the World Today and the Impact which will be felt by 1 ) Rest of the World & 2) Pakistan & Pakistani's.First of all The Chaos which Started with Tunisia and then started to Spread to Egypt , Yemen, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria , Libya etc etc. This chaos was a well thought out operation planned 10-12 years back and then the coordination, strategy and finally the implementation went into being causing this chaos . One can Ask FOR WHAT ? Three Reasons 1) Protection of Israel & the Jews.2) Money as USA is bankrupt and Middle east had stopped Putting its Money in USA for the Past 10 Years ( This Includes Crude Oil & International Prices of Commodities which are also effected).3) Power and Control (Out with the Old who had started to give excuses and in with the New who are easier to command).Just as 9/11 was a US Government Inside Job. This was also done by the Few who Control
Governments.The Effect surprisingly has so far been in-effective for USA & ISRAEL as people like me also know "THE REAL TRUTH" and are spreading this knowledge. I have been threatened a few times and might be one of the missing persons soon enough as i know too much Just Like Dr. Aafia Siddiqui knew too much and was well connected.The Effect on the World is easy and simple as Now everyone should know or if they don't then I will spell it out to everyone. USA is BROKE . G-10 are way Over their Heads in Debt excepting China and Japan.That is where electronic Money/Wire Transfers come into play. ALL IT and things can be controlled at the IT Data Centre. SWIFT Data Centre is in Brussels. Need i say further?. USA has over US$ 16.411 Trillion in Debts and ONLY US$ 399 Billion Gold Reserves (At current Rates). That is why China is now asking for Guarantees and anyone who will put his money would ask for Guarantees considering the US Dollar has been
losing its value for the Past 20 Years. The Effect of this Financial Tsumani will be especially felt by UN , IMF , WORLD BANK , ADB, Europe and ALL Those countries who have their currencies pegged to the US Dollar or who have USA as a Major trading Partner.
One of my Old 08th July 2008 Write-ups forewarning the start of Goof-Ups by the US Government by their "FINANCIAL GURUS/EXPERTS"

THE ALARMING HEALTH OF THE US ECONOMY

The health of U.S. has been on the rocks ever
since the Gramm-Rudmann-Hollings Law was amended/scrapped by President Bush.
The Repercussions on the Consumer/Common man on the street will be felt when
the Debt Servicing gets to above 3 Percent of GDP. which it already is. That
means that a period of recession which we have started. This should last for
another 2 possibly 3 years till 2011
followed inflation will follow for the next 5-7 years finally followed
by a Period of Stagflation possibly 3 years (reason I say Possibly, is because
all these depend on favourable / unfavourable changes of policy

of / from The US Government) i.e. I see Interest rates back
above double digits in 7-10 years. With the economy performing poorly. Proper
Recession should show its indication from 2009. Therefore Outflow of
investments should pick up speed 2009 onwards. Strikes / Bankruptcies to double
in the next 5 years. Unemployment to double in next 5 years. The USD to FALL ,
the Stock market to Fall to 7,000 levels . The banking sector to lead the way
as FDIC doesn't have enough money to
bail out a Top 20 US Bank. The Blame (I Feel) goes ALL to US Congress-Senate
especially PRESIDENT BUSH for his policies to gain Votes and popularity NOW at
the cost of the Future of the US People as the Consumer/Common people in USA
will feel the HIT 5-7 years down the road in a Big way. First Recession
followed by Stagflation after 3-5 years will and should be hitting the economy
in 2009 onwards as the Sub-Prime Mortgage crises is ONLY the forewarning of
worse gloom and doom to follow. Financial Sector (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
will cost the Government over 100 Billion Dollars and this will add to the doom naturally this will be taken
from the Consumers/Common Taxpayer).

UNLESS AND UNTIL THE TWIN DEFICITS ARE CONTROLLED NAMELY
BUDGET AND TRADE DEFICITS THEN IF DEVALUATION OF THE DOLLAR ON A MASSIVE SCALE
PLUS SPENDING CUTS ARE CARRIED OUT THE BALOON WILL BURST SOONER RATHER THAN
LATER SPELLING GLOOM AND DOOM ON A FAR MASSIVE SCALE THAN 1929 (GREAT
DEPRESSION).

So who is going to Bail out the USA ? EU ? World Bank ? IMF ? Japan
? China
? Who ???

Note what I have written down now as Time will tell you IF I
am right or wrong. Today 08 July 2008.

(This is my Personal Analysis and my own working)

Regards

Kamal Khan

Analyst/Consultant

Impact for Pakistan Can be minimal IF corrective measures/Steps are taken.
I am available for Help... Losses will be in US$ Billions and in Europe and USA Trillions.
Signing Off
Kamal Khan

__._,_.___

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