The Haqqani Memo

 

The Haqqani Memo – A story of different narratives

By Syed Haider Raza Mehdi

 ( Haider is an independent Management Consultant and a geo-political analyst who comments “infrequently” on matters of national import)

Invariably it is the “narrative” which defines what we accept and believe. It all depends on the narrative one hear and its resonance with one’s beliefs and views about the case and the protagonists.  Such is the case with the Haqqani memo, a case of 5 narratives. Mansoor Ejaz’s , Hussain Haqqani’s/PPP / Government, the Nawaz/Army/ISI combine, the USA’,  for the first time not a major n stage actor, thank goodness. Last and perhaps closer to the truth is a narrative combining elements from each.

The Mansoor Ejaz narrative.  Hussain Haqqani and Mansoor Ejaz were very close friends with their common bond being a hatred of both military rule and the trampling of democracy in Pakistan.  This bond was evident from the several joint articles written by the two together, their meetings, lunches, dinners with the icing on the cake when Hussain Haqqani arranged for a 45 minute meeting with Asif Zardari on his USA trip in 2008.  Mansoor claims that he was specifically chosen for this task because of “plausible deniability” meaning that Hussain and Co meaning Asif Zardari, the Government of Pakistan, Yousaf Raza Gilani, could easily deny such interlocution at a future date were it to become public knowledge, as it subsequently did. 

The reasoning behind such an act by Hussain Haqqani and Asif Zardari was to take advantage of the very weak and vulnerable position the army found itself on 2^nd May, when OBL was taken out in Abbottabad. This was the “Golden” Civilian moment to exercise civilian supremacy over the military, exercised thrice before in the past. Once by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, in sacking General Gul Hassan and Air Marshal Rahim Khan in the aftermath of the East Pakistan debacle, the second and third times by Nawaz Sharif in first successfully sacking the then army COAS Gen Jehangir Karamat and then an unsuccessful attempt to dethrone Pervez Musharraf. The army reeling with embarrassment being caught with its pants down, together with the much flaunted and vaunted ISI, now a mere ordinary pedestrian, unable to either know where OBL was hiding or worse still, unable to hide him well enough. The time to strike was now. So Hussain the ever green Rasputin and Asif Zardari the Machiavelli par excellence, decided to sack both Kayani and Pasha. This was to create a strong supreme civilian security apparatus under Hussain Haqqani as the supremely powerful National Security Advisor. 

This set up was to be populated with some know former senior military officers. These included the former COAS Gen Jehangir Karamat, the former Pakistani Ambassador to the USA and Gen Durrani, the former National Security advisor to Musharraf and then Gilani, who was later sacked, possibly along with others known for their pro American bias, real or imagined.  But fearing a potential backlash a la Musharraf, The Haqqani / Zardari combine decided to cook up this story of a potential military takeover to ensure that the Americans, already very upset at finding OBL in Pakistan, and clearly believing that the army and ISI were behind his presence, would come down heavily on Kayani, with a clear warning not to even think of a military takeover. Once this ‘Macbethian” deed was done, the axe would fall, the civilians would reign supreme, Hussain Haqqani would ride in on a glorious charger as the National Security Czar, accoladed and adulated by the Pakistani civil society outraged at the OBL fiasco. Asif Zardari would be finally and firmly entrenched, with a friendlier COAS and ISI chief and supported by a troupe of ex –military officers to continue his merry making and loot and plunder at will. 

To make sure the Americans played ball, the Zardari / Haqqani combine promised a pliant security apparatus, the required support in the war against terror, which included American boots on ground and a more “open” nuclear inspection regime. Mansoor’s evidence; Reams and reams of text’s, Blackberry messages, reference to ‘approval by the Boss”, allegedly Asif Zardari, transcribed telephone conversations and I suspect much more which he will disclose at some future data.  Personally I think he is a megalomaniac, desperate for importance, extremely unsavory, and only true to his own ego.  Having said that, his narrative seems to be substantially correct in at least linking his drafting of the memo, at Haqqani’s behest, with the request to send it to Mike Mullen. 

The Hussain Haqqani /Government of Pakistan / Yousaf Raza Gilani (read Asif Zardari’s narrative). This is fairly short.  Hussain Haqqani has nothing to do with the Memo.  Mansoor Ejaz is a rascal and an unsavory character. Benazir didn’t trust him, he is a US citizen, and has always publicly written against the Pakistan Army and the ISI.  Hussain has no relationship with the man and may have come across him as he does many other people in his ambassadorial assignment.  In summary it’s a pack of lies.  Evidence. Nothing substantial except to let loose the pack of hunting hounds comprising the likes of Babar Awan, Rehman ‘Veena” Malik, and other die hard ‘Zardarians” to paint Mansoor Ijaz as a blackguard and an enemy of Pakistan.  My view.  My son when he was 3 years old could lie better, even with his hands and mouth smeared with chocolate, his huge lovely innocent eyes full of shining tears, much like Hussain Haqqani listing his services to Pakistan, denying that he was eating the forbidden fruit, and somehow as surprised as I was to see the chocolate all over his hands! The killer evidence against Haqqani is his recent refusal to the memo commission to waive the privacy rights on his Blackberries along with the weak excuse that he “left” his sets in the USA as he departed in a hurry! Clearly, this is perhaps the strongest piece of circumstantial evidence against him, which may not stand up in court but recalls O J Simpson, whom everyone knew was guilty even when the jury acquitted him.

The Pak Army / ISI and Nawaz Sharif and Co narrative; This is very close to Mansoor Ijaz’s narrative and all subsequent actions by Nawaz Sharif, the Army and ISI indicate as much. First,  Nawaz Sharif’s post haste run to the Supreme Court and Pasha’s meeting with Mansoor Ijaz. Second, not informing the PM or President about the meeting till Haqqani was in Pakistan, thereby ensuring that the person they believed to be quite obviously guilty was in Pakistan. All these actions, some of them clearly violative of the chain of command from the ISI chief to the PM, confirm the clear Army / ISI view that Hussain Haqqani orchestrated the whole memo as described, most likely at the behest or at least whole hearted approval of Asif Zardari. Informing either the PM or the President of the meeting would have let the star witness / culprit, Hussain Haqqani, escape. Clearly the army views the offers made, as most Pakistani’s do, highly objectionable and treasonable, despite the fact that many others have done so in the past such as Nawaz Sharif to Bill Clinton and Gen Musharraf to George Bush.  The evidence; Pasha’s own ‘in principle” findings that the evidence provided by Mansoor Ejaz was very strong, despite the distrust of Mansoor Ejaz by Pasha, the ISI and the Army.  My opinion:  Hussain Haqqani and Asif Zardari clearly orchestrated the memo. 

The USA narrative. Deathly silence except for a misfired shell from Mike Mullen, backtracked with a red face and Gen James Jones’s, very lame, after the fact, submission.  Clearly somebody knew much more in the USA camp, even before it reached Mike Mullen. 

Another silent narrative very close to the Mansoor Ejaz and Pak Army narratives with a “Hitchcockian” twist. OBL was under ISI control and the Americans came to know about it. They informed Hussain Haqqani who in turn informed Asif Zardari about the raid perhaps a few hours before, and the plan subsequently emerged to use the successful operation to oust Kayani and Pasha. Mansoor Ejaz is used as a “sting” operator to plant this idea with Hussain Haqqani and the rest then is the script as described by Mansoor.

Whether Hussain Haqqani and Asif Zardari will eventually be tried and convicted, and whether Asif Zardari’s nexus to him and the memo will ever be conclusively proved is another matter.  The general historical consensus will, in my opinion, always be that Hussain Haqqani “did it” in cahoots with Asif Zardari. Not as much for “civilian supremacy” in my opinion but to become a very powerful person, as his huge EGO demands, with all the security establishments under his firm grasp, actively supported and propped by the USA and who knows, perhaps a future President Hussain Haqqani.  For Asif Zardari, the prize was a pliant military and a friendly USA so he could have a “final go” at Pakistan before retiring to a life of luxury in the Middle East or the US, having done their Master’s bidding.

Perhaps we will never know the whole truth but only bits and pieces. Like all such dramatic incidents, this will be colored with greater folklore and conspiracies and more actors till the final version, like the Chinese whisper, bears no resemblance to what actually happened.  Such is life and history.

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